A recent New Scientist article stub [5] claims “More than one-third of artificial intelligence researchers around the world agree…”

Following, in this article’s teaser (the remainder seems safely and comfortably behind a paywall) “more than one third” seems equated with a sample of 327 individuals in a 2022 global population of an estimated 7.98 billion [2, 8] (…is that about a 0.000004% of the population?)

This would deductively imply that there are less than 981 AI researchers in a population of 7.98 billion. …is then 0.0000124% of the population deciding for the 100% as to what is urgent and important to delegate “intelligence” to? …surely (not)… ( …demos minus kratos equals…, anyone?)

Five years ago, in 2017, The Verge referenced reports that mention individuals working in the field estimated at totaling 10’000 while others suggested an estimate closer to 300’000 [9] (…diffusioningly deviating).

As an opposing voice to what the 327 individuals are claimed to suggest, there is the 2022 AI Impacts pole [4] which suggests a rather different finding

Perhaps the definitions are off or the estimations are?

When expressing ideas driven by fear, or that are to be feared, one might want to tread carefully. Fear as much as hype & tunnel-visioned euphoria, while at times of (strategic, rhetorical, or investment pitching) “use”, are proverbial aphrodisiacs of populist narratives [1, 3, 6, 7]

Such could harm to identify & improve on the issue or related issues which might indeed be “real”, urgent & important

This is not “purely” a science, technology, engineering or mathematics issue. It is more than that while, for instance, through the lens created by Karl Popper, it is also a scientific methodological issue.

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References:

[1] Chevigny, P. (2003). The populism of fear: Politics of crime in the Americas. Punishment & Society, 5(1), 77–96. https://doi.org/10.1177/1462474503005001293

[2] Current World Population estimation ticker:https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/

[3] Friedrichs, J. (n.d.). Fear-anger cycles: Governmental and populist politics of emotion. (Blog). University of Oxford. Oxford Department of International Development. https://www.qeh.ox.ac.uk/content/fear-anger-cycles-governmental-and-populist-politics-emotion

[4] Grace, K., Korzekwa, R., Mills, J., Rintjema, J. (2022, Aug). 2022 Expert Survey on Progress in AI. Online: AI Impacts. Last retrieved 25 August 2022 from https://aiimpacts.org/2022-expert-survey-on-progress-in-ai/#Extinction_from_AI 

[5] Hsu, J.(2022, Sep).A third of scientists working on AI say it could cause global disaster. Online: New Scientist (Paywall). Last retrieved 24 Sep 2022 fromhttps://www.newscientist.com/article/2338644-a-third-of-scientists-working-on-ai-say-it-could-cause-global-disaster/

[6] Lukacs, J. (2006). Democracy and Populism: Fear and Hatred. Yale University Press. 

[7] Metz, R. (2021, May). Between Moral Panic and Moral Euphoria: Populist Leaders, Their Opponents and Followers. (Event / presentation). Online: The European Consortium for Political Research (ecpr.eu). Last retrieved on 25 September 2022 from https://ecpr.eu/Events/Event/PaperDetails/57114

[8] Ritchie, H., Mathieu, E., Rodés-Guirao, L., Gerber, M.  (2022, Jul). Five key findings from the 2022 UN Population Prospects. Online: Our World in Data. Last retrieved on 20 September 2022 from https://ourworldindata.org/world-population-update-2022

[9] Vincent, J. (2017, Dec). Tencent says there are only 300,000 AI engineers worldwide, but millions are needed. Online: The Verge. Last retrieved 25 Se 2022 from  https://www.theverge.com/2017/12/5/16737224/global-ai-talent-shortfall-tencent-report

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